A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
